According to Elon Musk, macro-economic conditions should not improve before the spring of 2024. An unattractive prospect for the crypto market!
Nothing encouraging before the halving
According to the boss of Tesla, the recession is here to stay. In a tweet dated October 21, he says he doesn’t see no improvements before spring 2024.
The United States, a barometer of the world economy, entered into technical recession since the third quarter of this year. Indeed, there is a clear contraction in GDP for the world’s largest economy.
According to Elon Musk, who already warned a few months ago about the risks of recession, this slowdown in the world economy will be marked and over time. The latter evokes years rather than months. He declares :
I’m only guessing but this recession will probably last until the spring of 2024. It would be good for the economy to go a year without a horrible global event.
A prediction not very encouraging, especially if we are on the side of risky assets. The latter are likely to suffer even more strongly from the consequences of a prolonged recession. These are in fact the first to take damage related to poor economic conditions as we have been able to observe in recent months.
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Bitcoin price stagnates
For now Bitcoin trades around $19,000 and experiences very moderate volatility. It has been trading for a month in a range between $18,500 and $20,400. Bitcoin and crypto assets continue to suffer deteriorated macro-economic conditions that we have known for several months now.
Market watchers seem to agree with Musk’s statement. Indeed, many analysts believe that the halving will allow the price of Bitcoin and the entire market to rise again. The latter will take place in May 2024.
As a reminder, the halving aims to split rewards given to miners by two. Thus, it creates a demand shock and generally launches bull runs as we have seen in previous cycles. An expectation that makes some crypto market observers like Material Indicators ironic:
If true, half of Crypto Twitter will be in a mental asylum.
Looking at the Bitcoin chart in daily UT, it looks like we are approaching a pivotal moment. To see Bitcoin rise again, it is necessary that the latter close above $20,500.
According to commentator Matthew Hyland:
Needless to say, the pressure is on to make a higher high above that $20,500 mark after retesting the $18,000 level. Now time is running out.
A Halloween effect to revive the market?
More anecdotally, some observers hope that Bitcoin is experiencing a “effet halloween“. An article by Finbold explains:
At this time of year, one factor to consider when investing in Bitcoin is the Halloween effect. A popular superstition among traders believes that Bitcoin and stock markets generally perform best from late October to mid-May.
For its part, the specialized site CoinMarketCap annually conducts a BTC price prediction survey for October 31st. The referral site community sees the course of assets reach $21,248. A little hope therefore for all the supporters of the king of crypto-currencies.
However, this lull could be short-lived. Indeed, the US Federal Reserve hold a new meeting the 1is and next November 2. In case of bad news and chute traditional markets, Bitcoin and crypto markets should experience the same fate. Conversely, des perspectives positives would allow the market to rise again.
For now, it’s hard to imagine anything other than a continuation of the policy initiated by the FED for many months. A rise in interest rates is expected. According to market observers, this rise is likely to continue until the middle of the year 2023 at least. We will closely follow the next few weeks and the behavior of Bitcoin in a more than delicate context.
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