Decisive week on the financial markets? – This week, the quarterly results of the largest American companies will be revealed. Companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Apple have very high capitalization and their quarterly results have a huge impact on the financial markets. A sort of barometer of economic activity. the Bitcoin is highly correlated to the US marketpoor results could heavily impact the cryptocurrency market by ricochet.
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Bitcoin close to regaining volatility?
For more than a month, Bitcoin (BTC) has been hovering between 18 200 $ et 20 400 $. The volatility of the safe-haven cryptocurrency asset is plummeting, but a big move could be coming soon:
Bitcoin draws a range in between 24 500 $ et 19 000 $. Currently at the bottom of the range, the price is approaching the bearish trendline initiated in August 2022. As long as the price is moving below, the support can drop and cause a panic movement below the low at 17 600 $. To avoid this scenario, buyers need to break this trendline and change momentum on a daily basis. For this, it is necessary to close above 20 500 $. It would not be enough to exceed the bearish trendline, as the price can slide along this trendline if the buyers lack strength. To relaunch a bullish momentum, it is necessary to exceed this trendline and change momentum.
If the buyers manage to change their momentum, the price could stall at the level of the resistance at $24,500. Whatever happens, as long as Bitcoin does not go back above the zone to 29 000 $the price will remain fragile et bearish.
The momentum is building up contract, the RSI is in total indecision. It would be positive to see the momentum exceed the level at 55then 62 of RSI. This would show strength on the buy side.
Safe-haven assets in a range
The dollar is still in an uptrend
The dollar is still in uptrend and while this is the case, risky assets like BTC and cryptocurrencies will struggle to perform. In the short term, a range sets up for the dollar:
The dollar keeps the institutional bias (EMA 9/ EMA 18), it will take a strong rejection below the EMAs for a change in momentum to take place (red arrow). A fence above 115 points would mean a bullish continuation, and that would not be positive for Bitcoin and altcoins. For the moment, the trend remains intact and the probabilities are oriented towards a bullish continuation.
The momentum is always bullish, the RSI is still above the bullish trendline. It would take a rejection at that level to mark the top on the dollar.
Gold is stuck between $1,730 and $1,615
gold is fragile since the start of 2022. While safe-haven assets should benefit from the disastrous macroeconomic and geopolitical situation, gold is failing to perform:
Gold is clearly in downtrend since April. the weekly support is threatened, but buyers can re-enter the range in the event of a close above 1 730 $. For the moment, the price is stuck between 1 730 $ et 1 615 $, it will be necessary to be attentive to the exit of the range. Two scenarios are to be expected:
- The price closes above 1 730 $ : and bullish scenario gets ready. The price reenters the weekly range between 1 970 $ et 1 690 $buyers would then have the opportunity to push to the top of the range.
- The price closes below 1 615 $ : and bearish scenario which could bring the course back to 1 550 $ or even 1 450 $. This scenario would change the long-term dynamics of gold.
The US market is recovering
The S&P 500 climbs back above $3,700
After several weeks of decline, the S&P 500 regains color and climbs by almost 10 % since the low on October 13:
Despite the significant increase in 10 % since the last low at 3 500 $the dynamic is bearish on the S&P 500. The index marked a bottom lower than the previous one, the sellers have their hands on this asset. Resistance is approaching 3 900 $ as well as the institutional bias, it would not be illogical to see the index breathe a little. The reaction is interesting, now the buyers need to defend the support at 3 500 $ to change dynamics. As long as the asset is under the bearish trendlinethe price will remain fragile. It will be necessary to break free from this trendline to regain interest on the buyer side.
The RSI once again crosses above the bearish trendline. It is interesting to note that the RSI does not mark new lows while the price continues to print lower lows than the previous ones. It seems that the sellers are running out of steam, a bullish divergence could be confirmed in the event of a close above 60 of RSI.
NASDAQ breaks back above support at $11,000
The NASDAQ climbs 10 %buyers defend support at 11 000 $ :
Buyers showed up under the bracket at 11 000 $, it will be necessary to confirm this upward movement by changing momentum in the weeks to come. At the moment the trend is bearish on this asset and the price is already at the level of a dynamic resistance. If the buyers push, the price could go back to the level of the next resistance at 12 000 $.
The momentum is solid, the RSI holds the last lows marked in January and May 2022. This shows that the sellers are running out of steam, but the buyers need to take advantage of it. If the trend is strong, many divergences can appear without the price changing direction. This is why buyers need to change their dynamics and break the bearish trendline.
The Bitcoin drops in volatility and continues to veg around $19,000, but that could change soon. The price is approaching the bearish trendline and the market could finally take a direction. The dollar is taking a break, but the momentum remains bullish for now. Gold is below weekly support, buyers need to show up early to avoid changing the long-term momentum on this asset. For its part, the US market is recovering. Buyers are showing up at important supports and bullish divergences continue to appear. Did the capitulation take place in the traditional market?
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