The bearmarket continues its way…- The US market is very fragile, the US indices mark a new low since June 2022. For its part, Bitcoin is trying to maintain support at 19 000 $. Buyers are not giving up in a context of uncertainty. Can Bitcoin recover and change momentum in the short term? Has the US market capitulated? This is Le Point Macro Hebdo!
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Bitcoin Holds Support at $19,000
Bitcoin price continues to evolve with a low volatility and operators manage to keep the bracket at $19,000 :
Bitcoin fails to change momentum on a daily basis. It currently evolves between the first stop (0.382 Fibonacci retracement) and support at 19 000 $. The first stop made résistance at 20 450 $it will be necessary to break this level to reach the shorts reload area located between 22 250 $ et 23 500 $. Also, the bearish trendline is resistance and the price will remain fragile as long as it moves below it.
Momentum is trying to regain bullish momentum, but tops are struggling to form. The RSI is below the bearish trendlineshe could do résistance in the coming days.
Risk off: the dollar shows signs of weakness, gold is below the weekly support
The dollar has the opportunity to change momentum
The dollar is thesafe-haven asset of the year 2022. Risky assets like Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general have struggled to perform since the dollar has attracted capital. A local top on the dollar would probably allow some breathing space on the cryptocurrency side:
The dollar rate is bullish weekly. The parabola continues to be intact, the upward movement is impressive since May 2021. Nevertheless, the dollar has the possibility of changing momentum in the event of a close below 110 points. On the other hand, if the price crossed 115 pointsthen it will be bullish continuation and the price could then join 119 points. The institutional bias (EMA 9/ EMA 18) to serve support at each retracement of the dollar, we will see if the price has rebounded at this level again.
Momentum, which describes the strength of buyers against the strength of sellers, is always bullish. He keeps the bullish trendline, the RSI could even bounce against this line in the coming days. We notice some bearish divergences, a sign that buyers are weakening, but sellers must take advantage. When a movement is strong, several divergences can appear without impacting the trend. It will be necessary to be attentive to the evolution of the course, to see if the trend changes.
Gold Remains Fragile Below $1,690
Gold is a safe haven asset that is struggling to perform despite the current economic and geopolitical issues. The course is still under the support weekly :
The gold is inscribed in a bearish momentum and under the bearish trendline. Recently, the course was rejected at the level of the institutional bias and buyers are struggling to hold weekly support. Buyers aim to hold the latest low at 1 615 $ and close above 1 730 $. Sellers have the option of permanently leaving the range installed since April 2020 by marking a new low. The next supports can be found at 1 560 $ et 1 450 $. For its part, the momentum succeeded in breaking the bearish trendlinebuyers can take advantage of it.
Sellers manage to bend buyers on the US market
Bitcoin manages to hold support at 19 000 $ and the king of cryptocurrencies still has not made a low from June 2022. The US market seems more fragileas the sellers managed to bend the buyers and the momentum continues to be bearish. Attention, if the momentum continues, there is a good chance that Bitcoin will follow, because asrisky assetit remains highly correlated to the US market.
S&P 500 back to $3,500
The S&P 500 is back to 3 500 $a level that had not been touched since November 2020:
The price marks a new low and confirms the downtrend on this asset. The bracket to 3 700 $ gave way, the price returned to the support level at 3 500 $. This is an important level the buyers could show themselves. If a panic movement appears, the next support is at 3 200 $. In the event of a rebound, the institutional bias and the area to 3 700 $ will resist.
Momentum is showing strength. Indeed, in June 2022, the price marked a new low without the RSI following. Currently, despite the new low on the course, the RSI is holding the latest lows. To confirm this news bullish divergenceit will be necessary to close above 60. This shows that the sellers are losing strength, the price might start to build a range.
NASDAQ soon back to $9,700?
NASDAQ tries to hold support at 11 000 $but the course seems fragile:
The NASDAQ already seems to have lost support at 11 000 $. The price made a new low and it seems that the downward movement is not over. Indeed, the price could fall towards the next support dating from June 2020 at 9 700 $ (-12 %).
The momentum is solid like that of the S&P 500. Indeed, the dips remain ascending, a bullish divergence could be set up in the event of a fence above 60. On the other hand, the RSI evolves under the bearish trendline and this shows short-term fragility.
Bitcoin holds support at $19,000 as US indices make new low. the Bitcoin shows resilience and outperforms the US market or is the king of cryptocurrencies lagging behind? Bitcoin cannot change momentum on a daily basis, we must remain vigilant. Beware, the NASDAQ could still drop more than 10%, Bitcoin would probably struggle to hold support if this move happens. The dollar may change momentum, but it’s going to take a strong rejection below 110 points. As long as the dollar is strong, risky assets like Bitcoin and the US market will struggle to change momentum.
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