Fear in the markets – Yesterday’s session was choppy and trapped a lot of traders using leverage. As Bitcoin threatened to close below daily support, buyers managed to regain control. Altcoins are in trouble, because capital is heading back to the king of cryptocurrencies. Since The Merge, Ethereum (ETH) and altcoins are struggling to perform and this may continue in the coming weeks. Let’s take a closer look at the situation on altcoins.
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Ethereum retains support at $1,250
L’ether is downtrend since the breakout of support at $1,900 last June. Despite a turbulent day yesterday, ETH has kept on support. Buyers will have to continue their momentum to to avoid a return to 1 000 dollars.
Ether is in a range weekly between 1900 and 1 000 dollars. Since the local top in August, the dynamic is bearish within this range. For the moment, the course is being rejected at the level of institutional bias (EMA 9 /EMA 18), but buyers are defending the support at 1250 dollars.
To avoid closing below support, Buyers need to change the momentum. Yesterday, from liquidity was taken below the latest dips, and we will have to wait for a possible real change. The course is in the reloading area (0.618-0.786 Fibonacci retracement). This is an area that often gives rise to a buying rally. This scenario could allow a rebound towards the resistance to 1 900 dollars.
The momentum remains encouraging as long as the bullish trendline is maintained. The RSI is attempting a change in momentum and the buyers can take advantage of this.
An undecided Ether price against Bitcoin
The event The Merge enabled low-end buyers to take profits. While the price had the opportunity to break out of the range, the sellers regained control.
The pair’s price is sliding along the bearish trendline. For the moment, the intermediate support of the range holds and could allow a bounce towards the résistance. Attention ! In the event of a fall below the bearish trendline and below the support, the price opens at a chute towards the bottom of the range, or 15% lower. Buyers need to show up early to avoid this downside scenario with a retest of support.
Following the bearish divergence formed during the local top, the RSI evolves under a bearish trendline. This could resist in the weeks to come. It will therefore be necessary to get rid of it.
In the very short term, the pair absolutely needs to change momentum.
The buyers managed to break the trendline and hold the support. In contrast, momentum remains bearish for the moment. It will be necessary to find a dynamic with troughs and ascending peaks.
Altcoins remain fragile
Altcoins are going through a complicated period, the capitalisation altcoins having dropped by 30% since the top last August.
The capitalization of altcoins evolves within a range in between 465 billion and 700 billion the dollars. Currently, the price is in the reload zone and the buyers are trying to hold the support at 520 billion the dollars. The institutional bias is bearish and rejected the price a few days ago. He could continue to resist in the days to come. Whatever happens, the trend remains bearish within this range. We will have to wait for a change in dynamics to think that the fall is over.
Momentum is bearish. The RSI is moving below the bearish trendline. Momentum allows us to assess the strength of the buyers against the strength of the sellers. And for the moment, the sellers have the upper hand.
Bitcoin dominance continues to climb
Since the beginning of September, capital has again been heading towardssafe-haven asset cryptocurrencies: the BTC. The dominance remains in a ranges between 40 and 48%.
The Dominance of Bitcoin could quickly get to 42,5 %which corresponds to the first stop (0.382 Fibonacci retracement). If the first stop does not hold, the price could quickly reach the shorts reload area between 45 and 46.5%. In this dark period, between geopolitical problems and economic problems, Bitcoin is the least risky cryptocurrency asset, it seems logical that operators are moving towards this asset.
Analyse on-chain d’Ethereum
Behavior of large wallets
It is interesting to study the behavior of big walletsbecause they are entities that are capable of having a influence on the course.
We can see it very well. The Merge was sold by these operators. They took advantage of the prevailing euphoria to take profits. On the other hand, while we could clearly see a distribution behavior since July 2021, the trend seems to be changing. Indeed, it would seem that the whales are starting to accumulate for the next upward phase. For now, the trend remains uncertain. We will have to see how the curve evolves in the weeks to come.
Ethereum maintains support at $1,250. Buyers should then now confirm by changing momentum on contact with support. Against Bitcoin, Ether is in trouble, but it retains intermediate support for the time being. It is absolutely necessary to keep this support for avoid reaching the bottom of the range. The situation has been delicate since The Merge. The whales took profits at that time. Unlike the distribution that began in July 2021, it would appear that the trend now looks like accumulation. Bitcoin attract capital and dominance could quickly join 42,5 %. In this complicated period, it seems that operators are betting on the least risky asset in the ecosystem, which remains logical.
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