Still in balance, the prince of cryptos is looking for himself ! – The verdict is long overdue for many cryptocurrency investors. In effect, the price of Ethereum (ETH) currently fails to chart a clear direction since mid-September. That being said, we have nothing to sink our teeth into in terms of catalysts that could potentially move the lines.
At the time of writing, the prince of cryptos sees his bear market since his last ATH in November 2021 stagnating. Although this is an encouraging sign for bulls, they navigate between two feelings: wait-and-see attitude and anxiety. Indeed, the losses suffered since the end of March-beginning of April last still leave traces. To the point that the crisis of confidence in cryptocurrencies remains palpable contrary to popular belief.
In a market context flooded with uncertainties, let’s dissect the latest technical analyzes of ETH whether in the near future or in the medium to long term.
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Ethereum in Weekly Units – Four Straight Weeks of Status Quo
Since the huge bearish candle of the week of September 12, Ethereum has been hovering around the resistance of $1400. Admittedly, prices are slightly below this level, but not to the point of alarm over a possible corrective wave at this stage. And as we mentioned last week, I would say anything is possible one way or the other. Without forgetting a new week without relief which would attest to both the wait-and-see attitude for the bears and the anguish for the bulls.
If I had to decide immediately, the bears would unfortunately remain in a good position. On the one hand, the fact that ETH prices and the Chikou Span are still below the Kumo (Ichimoku Cloud), could drag on like a cannonball for quite a while. And on the other hand, the downward synchronization of the Tenkan-Kijun tandem is not likely to allow us to see the rest from a better angle. Generally, it presages a major downward movement, especially in the context of a bear run.
Putting these unfavorable technical signals end to end, there would be a tendency to look down. Based on this observation, which looks like a cold shower for bulls, we would be heading towards the support of $1000, close to the lows of the year. With the fear of a downside potential that could be significant if the financial markets were to enter an unsustainable stress zone.
In daily units, a small hope is emerging. In effect, Ethereum managed to pass successively above Tenkan and Kijun. This would simultaneously open the way for a return of prices to the lower limit of the Kumo (Senkou Span A), the resistance of $1400, then the upper limit of the downward channel since mid-August.
In the event of a crossing of $1400, we would exit the downward channel from above and reintegrate inside the cloud. But despite this breath of fresh air, the hardest part is yet to come with the presence of the descending line of the bear run, not far from the upper limit of Kumo (Senkou Span B). At the same time, the Chikou Span would still remain under the cloud if this market scenario were to occur.
Conversely, the specter of a return to year-to-date lows would push ETH prices back towards the lower boundary of the downtrend channel. And for fear of suffering an unforeseen event in the financial markets, cryptocurrency investors could once again become disillusioned with the prospect of seeing triple-digit prices again. Via a slide that would materialize towards the support of $700 or even $450.
In summary, if we continue at this rate like the last four weeks (excluding the current week), the reflex would be to switch to Move along, nothing to see. However, Ethereum’s bear market since its last ATH in November 2021 continues to stall, despite the current resilience around $1400. In such a way that the anguish could fall again on the side of the bulls.
Not only does the gradual enlargement of the future Kumo in weekly units complicate the task of a favorable trend reversal. And for good reason, it would take significant gains to sound the death knell of the last wave of correction. But even worse, the FED’s desire to continue its monetary tightening by means of a reduction in its asset balance sheet and a rapid cycle of rate hikes, would annihilate a return to grace in favor of the asset classes most sensitive to liquidity. . And obviously, that wouldn’t do the business of cryptocurrencies, especially the prince of cryptos.
Therefore, until we see signs of fundamental and chart improvement, Ethereum could be doomed to undergo a third wave of correction, which itself would lead to capitulation. This is the step that would lead to possible (real) big damage in the context of a bear market.
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