The fall is not over for cryptocurrencies?- In this dark context on the cryptocurrency side, the Bybit platform announces the layoff of around 30% of its workforce. Recall that the exchange platform had already laid off employees in last june. This shows that the situation is still not stable, and that it will take time for cryptocurrencies to recover. Bitcoin Stuck Below $17,000, Can The Crypto King Rise? Is the US market running out of steam? This is the Weekly Macro Point!
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Despite a slight rebound, Bitcoin remains in a downtrend
With Bitcoin (BTC) tries to find colors for the end of the year 2022, but the situation remains good sombre. The king of cryptocurrencies remains stuck under the institutional bias (EMA 9/EMA 18) :
Bitcoin is in downtrend according to the Dow theory. Indeed, the troughs and peaks are descending and as long as they are, there is nothing to look forward to for this asset. Technically, as long as the price is below 19 000 $, the sellers have the upper hand, and they have the opportunity to sink BTC. Moreover, the institutional bias could make résistance in the coming days. Since April 2022, EMAs have pushed back five times the lesson.
In the event of a rebound, Bitcoin will have to rub against the first stop (0.382 Fibonacci retracement) which is resistance in downtrend. Once exceeded, the price could reach the shorts reload area (0.618-0.786 Fibonacci retracement) located between 21 500 $ et 23 200 $. Whatever happens, the course is always located under the bearish trendlineand as long as this is the case, the price will remain fragile.
For its part, the momentum is trying to start rising again and is posting ascending highs. It would seem that the momentum is changing momentum over the medium term. It will be necessary to exceed 54 from RSI to confirm this. The stochastic displays a bullish divergenceit will be necessary to exceed the downward trendline to regain buying strength.
Historically, Bitcoin is sometimes overratedor undervalued. Some indicators on-chain can help to know in which situation he is. the MVRV Z- Score is part of :
According to the MVRV Z-ScoreBitcoin was overrated in 2021 it is now undervalued. Historically, we see that the area in green is very interesting to be placed at thepurchase. These were market lows in 2015, 2019 and 2020. Please note, this is only an indicator, which may prove ineffective at one time or another..
Risk off: The dollar falls, gold confirms
The capital turnover seems to continue to operate. For the moment, thegold seems to attract capitalcapital which had been largely oriented towards the dollar since the beginning of 2022.
The dollar falls below the support at 105.5 points
The dollar continues to show weakness at the end of the year. The price continues to show lower lows than the previous ones:
The dollar index now shows a downtrend weekly. The dollar is showing fragilityhe just broke new tech support at 105,5 points. The next objective for sellers is the return to the level of weekly support at 102,5 points. In the event of a rebound, the institutional bias could act as dynamic resistance and thus confirm the downtrend.
The momentum is bearish, it continues to show descending lows and highs. As long as this is the case certain assets like gold could continue their rise.
Gold Closes Above $1,785, Confirming Uptrend
We were talking about itat last week, gold had the ability to bounce and confirm the trend by closing above 1 785 $. It is now done:
The uptrend is confirmed on gold in the short and medium term, even if the price is still in a range. For the moment, the price is blocked at the level of the first stop at 1 788 $. If the first stop yields, the price could return between 1 895 $ et 1 970 $. Also, the institutional bias is crossing bullish for the first time in several months. These EMAs could act as dynamic support in the coming weeks.
Momentum is also bullishthe RSI continues to show bottoms and rising tops.
The US market is starting to run out of steam?
The S&P 500 could pause
The S&P 500 has rebounded 17 % since October 12, but the price is showing signs of shortness of breath :
The S&P 500 is struggling around the first stop. Additionally, a dual resistance is on its way with:
- Technical resistance at $4,150 : this one has several times allowed rebounds, it is an important technical zone for this asset.
- The bearish trendline : she postponed the course twice and could once again reject it. As long as the price moves below the bearish trendline, it will remain fragile.
For buyers, the objective is to keep the price above the bracket at $3,900 and exceed the level at 4 150 $. In case of breakage of the support 3 900 $the price could join the next bracket at $3,700.
The momentum is in an area of résistance. This zone has rejected the course several times, it is possible that the resistance will act again.
NASDAQ touching resistance at $12,000
The NASDAQ is suffering the brunt of the various macroeconomic problems, investors have very little visibility regarding this sector at present. As for the S&P 500 the price has bounceit is now close to the resistance at $12,000 :
The Nasdaq is struggling to surpass the resistance at $12,000and the RSI is against the bearish trendline. The price could return to the level of the $11,000 weekly support. As long as the price is below the bearish trendlinethe price will remain fragile and the sellers can regain control at any time.
US indices could be on the end of a bounce. If buyers want to regain control of these assets, it will be necessary to overcome the next resistances and the bearish trendlines that are on their way.
The Bitcoin is in a downtrend, the end of the year could be interesting for the risky asset if the buyers manage to retake the level at $19,000. Capital seems to be flowing and leaving the dollar, but cryptocurrencies are not benefiting from this at the moment. On the other hand, gold attracts capital and confirms its upward trend in the medium term. For its part, the US market is nearing the end of its rebound, but buyers have the possibility of changing the situation. We will see if the last dip buyers take advantage of the location to take some profits at these levels. These are good levels to take profit as several resistances are now present. Cryptocurrencies remain in a complicated situation, far from the standards known in 2021.
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