The native asset of the polkadot blockchain is no longer as dynamic as at the beginning of the year 2022 as well as the year 2021 if we go back further. The whole market has been in a particularly complicated phase for the past month, although the market has been in a range since the end of June. Could DOT regain momentum in the coming months? What are the levels to watch over the next few weeks? Should we have a more bullish or bearish bias? In this new Monday analysis, let’s take stock of the asset and try to determine the most plausible scenarios.
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DOT: It’s now double or nothing despite the dead calm
First, let’s start with the weekly scale. We can see the difficulty for DOT to resume in dynamics. After the loss of 16.20 dollars, the asset entered a powerful fall by returning to a key level which is at 5.90/6.10 dollars. Formerly resistance, this zone is now a support on which the DOT relies for several months. Will he give in? The more the asset continues to rebound, the more it tends to weaken, the probabilities of a downward breakout logically increasing.
In recent weeks, the DOT has been rejected on a resistance around 9.20 / 9.30 dollar. We can clearly see the range in which the asset is evolving. We are now waiting for an exit from the range. This will undoubtedly be done with some vigor. If a breakout takes place on the downside, two levels are to be watched:
- The $4.90, a level that was resistance and then support, which allowed the DOT to rebound and trigger a powerful bullish run.
- The 4.10/4.20 dollar zone, a very important weekly support on the DOT. This lasted for several weeks.
What about DOT on a daily scale?
On a smaller time scale, we can see the ability of the DOT to defend its support that we have previously identified. Apart from the bearish scenario that we have mentioned, what would be the signs of a bullish recovery? First, the DOT will have to overcome the three EMAs that are just above it (EMA 13/25/32). This would give a more favorable setup for a bullish reversal. However, it doesn’t stop there. The asset will also need to regain the $6.51.
If he succeeds, in addition to a potential rejection at $6.80, the way would be clear for a return of DOT to $7.25. This level corresponds to the confluence of the POC of our volume profile as well as the MA100 on which the asset was rejected in the first half of September. This is the key level within the current range. If the DOT continues to rise and breaks this level upwards, the conditions would be favorable for a return to the Value Area High.
Here we are at the end of this analysis on the DOT. You can see that it’s been dead calm for several weeks. If the asset manages to overcome certain levels mentioned above, the rise could be very interesting. However, we are not there yet. The DOT must not hand over to the sellers and fall below its support. This would undoubtedly open the doors for a fresh leg down to levels that have not been seen since 2020.
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