Will the falling dollar push Bitcoin higher? – The Weekly Macro Update.

Another important week in the financial markets– Last week, the financial markets discovered the quarterly results of the largest American companies such as Amazon, Google, Apple and Microsoft. The results are generally disappointing, except for Apple, which is doing well. On Wednesday, the FED (Federal Reserve of the United States) should once again raise rates by 75 basis points. As cryptocurrencies try to rebound, the meeting will be crucial for what happens next. Are Bitcoin and the US market changing momentum? Let’s look at the clues left by the graphs!

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Bitcoin chooses the rise? Coming Volatility on Cryptos

We saw it in the introduction, the week is likely to be volatile from the rate decision. It will be necessary to wait a few days to see the final direction taken by the operators according to the increase in rates.

Last week, we were talking about future volatility, because the price is contractedit would seem that the buyers have the hand for the moment:

Bitcoin price against the dollar (3D)

Recently, buyers managed to change momentum. For several months, the dynamic was bearish and she is again bullish after this fence above 20 450 $. This change in dynamic shows that operators are interested in these prices, and that the stand is solid. Also, the course breaks the bearish trendline initiated last August. This breakout should enable volatility to return, as it was very weak during the last few weeks. Next resistors are at 21 600 $ then 24 500 $.

Please note that buyers must defend the latest low at 18 200 $to avoid a scenario similar to April-May 2022, where Bitcoin (BTC) had changed momentum before dropping more than 60 %. A scenario that would bring Bitcoin under 17 600 $ remains possible, but it is not the preferred scenario as it stands. No matter what, Bitcoin is still in a rangeit will be necessary to pass over 29 000 $ and break the bearish trendline initiated in November to regain medium-term bullish momentum on this asset.

The momentum is always bullish, it displays troughs and ascending peaks. Also, the RSI is still moving above the bullish trendline. When this is broken (on the downside), the price will probably experience a strong breath.

Safe-haven assets weakening

Local top on the dollar

We know, the dollar is thesafe-haven asset of the year 2022. The asset was attracting capital, but is the trend changing? This is the first time that the asset change of dynamic in three-day time units, since January 2021:

The dollar index changes dynamics in 3D.
Dollar index chart (3D)

The dollar index was already showing signs of weakness with the bearish divergence marked a few weeks ago. A divergence shows a loss of strength, the price also needs to change momentum, and it’s done. The price closes below 110 points and mark a top locala first since the dollar sucked capital from the financial markets.

To really show that the buyers have lost control of this asset, it would be interesting to see the price move below the 109 point support. This would show a strong rejectionand would probably signal the end of this upward movement.

The momentum shows a new bearish divergence with this fence under 53 of RSI. Buyers seem to be running out of energy, now sellers need to push.

Gold is ready to collapse?

Gold has been in trouble since the beginning of 2022, and it doesn’t seem to be getting better. Gold is still moving under the weekly support at $1,690 :

Price of gold against the dollar (3D)

Sign of the fragility of gold, the course was rejected at the level ofEMA9. However, the lowest 1 615 $ is retained by buyers for the time being. Buyers now have the option to change momentum by closing above 1 675 $but do they have the necessary strength?

Whatever happens, we wait for a fence above 1 730 $ or below 1 615 $ to know the direction chosen by the operators. The momentum is always febrile at the moment, the RSI is not clearly marking bottoms and ascending tops.

The US market is already at significant resistance levels

The US market reacted well last week, but momentum still remains globally bearish. For the moment, the upward movements are not conclusive, and weak dollar will it allow a return of the rise on the US market?

The S&P 500 on resistance at $3,900

Last week, we were talking about the level of resistance at $3,900the course is already at this level:

Price of the S&P 500 against the dollar (3D)

The price reacted well to the level of the bracket at $3,500, it must now change dynamics in this unit of time. The course is at the level of a résistance important, it would seem logical that the course breathes. In just a few days, the price has climbed more than 10 %. The momentum is still very solid. The RSI could mark a bullish divergence closing above 60.

The course should change dynamics and exceed the bearish trendline to start a trend again like for Bitcoin. For the moment, this upward movement does not show a definitive market low.

NASDAQ stalls at $11,600

The NASDAQ seems less in shape than its counterpart, the price currently stumbles at the level of institutional bias at $11,600 :

NASDAQ price against the dollar (3D)

The NASDAQ rebounded in extremis at the level of the bracket at $11,000but the price already seems to be losing strength at the dynamic resistance at $11,600. If buyers manage to regain encouraging momentum by closing above 11 670 $the price could reach the resistance at $12,000.

As for the S&P 500, the price of the NASDAQ will have to change momentum and go back above the bullish trendline to resume a bullish momentum healthy in the medium to long term. For the moment, the dynamic is bearish and sellers could quickly show up. On the other hand, the momentum is solid, it does not post a new low unlike the price. This shows that the sellers are running out of steam, the buyers could take advantage of it.

The dollar is weakening, the indices are rebounding, it could finally be a question of a change of direction at the level of capital. We are starting to see changes in the behavior of the actors from a graphical point of view, it now remains to be confirmed. While safe-haven assets are losing momentum, Bitcoin and the US market are rebounding. Bitcoin is very strong right now, it still hasn’t made a new low since last June. Is the king of cryptocurrencies structuring a market low? It is still too early to tell. Risky assets could quickly regain interest, but Wednesday’s FED meeting could change all that. You have to be careful in the short term.

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